2024 Big 12 Championship Race: Breaking Down the Scenarios

This year’s Big 12 football season has been an exhilarating rollercoaster, with chaos and unpredictability dominating the league. As the conference championship game looms, fans are left wondering: Will their team make it? Navigating the possibilities isn’t easy, especially since the Big 12 remains the most wide-open conference in college football.

Here’s the bottom line: Nine teams are still mathematically alive for a spot in the championship game, and no team has complete control over its own destiny. With four teams — Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado — tied at the top at 6-2, the race is anything but clear-cut. The complexity deepens with 256 potential outcome combinations in Week 14 that could determine who takes the coveted spots in the title game. Let’s unpack the scenarios.

Key Scenarios for Week 14

1. If Arizona State, BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado All Win
   The championship matchup would be Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
2. If Exactly Two of the Top Four Teams Win
   The two victorious teams would meet in the championship game.
3. If Arizona State, BYU, and Iowa State Win While Colorado Loses
   The matchup remains Arizona State vs. Iowa State.
4. If Arizona State, BYU, and Colorado Win While Iowa State Loses
   The championship game would feature Arizona State vs. BYU.
5. If BYU, Iowa State, and Colorado Win While Arizona State Loses
   The game would be Iowa State vs. BYU.
6. If Arizona State, Iowa State, and Colorado Win While BYU Loses
   This scenario depends on other outcomes:
   • Colorado vs. Iowa State if Texas Tech, Baylor, and Cincinnati all win.
   • Colorado vs. Arizona State if either Baylor or Cincinnati loses.
   • If Texas Tech loses, the game defaults to Arizona State vs. Iowa State.

What About the 5-3 Teams?

For teams currently sitting at 5-3, their path to the championship game is even narrower. These teams must win their games while hoping at least three of the top four teams suffer losses. While improbable, the possibility adds another layer of intrigue to an already unpredictable season.

As Week 14 unfolds, fans will be glued to the results, eagerly calculating the permutations that could see their teams secure a place in one of the most hotly contested Big 12 Championship games in years. With no guarantees and countless possibilities, the drama is far from over.