Five Reasons BYU Can Overcome Arizona State This Weekend

The stage is set for a high-stakes matchup between No. 14 BYU and No. 21 Arizona State, a game that will likely determine a spot in the Big 12 title showdown. Just a few months ago, such a scenario might have seemed unlikely, but both teams have charted impressive paths to this ranked clash. Arizona State enters the game with momentum, riding high after a 24-14 victory against then-No. 16 Kansas State. However, doubts loom over BYU, with analysts questioning whether the Cougars are losing their edge. Despite the skepticism, there are several reasons to believe BYU can rise to the challenge this Saturday.

1. Jake Retzlaff Thrives Against Standard Pass Rush

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff may have struggled recently, especially against blitz-heavy defenses like Kansas and Utah, but he shines when given the opportunity to operate against a standard pass rush. Arizona State’s defense ranks poorly in this area, sitting at 110th nationally in blitz rate and 104th in sacks per game. Retzlaff is the fourth-highest-graded passer against standard rushes this season, boasting an impressive 90.1 PFF grade and averaging over eight yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions. With ASU’s defense also ranking 96th in success rate per dropback, Retzlaff has a clear opportunity to exploit their weaknesses and regain his form.

2. BYU’s Offense Matches Up Well with ASU

Although BYU’s offense has faced scrutiny for recent struggles, Arizona State’s defense offers a more favorable matchup. BYU excels in ball control, ranking 8th nationally in drives reaching scoring position compared to ASU’s 66th. Additionally, the Cougars’ running backs, LJ Martin and Hinckley Ropati, have been productive, averaging nearly six yards per carry over their last five games. In critical areas like third down efficiency and red zone scoring, BYU outpaces ASU. With a simpler defensive scheme to face and lessons learned from past mistakes, the BYU offense has a strong chance to rebound and deliver a commanding performance.

3. Defensive Preparation Gives BYU the Edge

BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill thrives when he has adequate film to prepare for opposing quarterbacks. This season, in games where BYU’s coaching staff had sufficient tape on the opposing QB, the defense has allowed just 14.8 points per game and limited QBs to a rating of 86.3. These numbers would rank among the top seven nationally over a full season. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt is efficient but heavily reliant on short passes to key target Jordyn Tyson, whom BYU’s secondary is well-equipped to neutralize. If BYU can also limit ASU’s standout running back, Cam Skattebo, their defense could dominate the Sun Devils.

4. Containing Cam Skattebo Is Key

Arizona State’s offensive centerpiece, Cam Skattebo, is a dynamic rusher with over 1,000 yards this season. However, BYU’s run defense has shown it can handle elite running backs. While inconsistent at times, the Cougars’ defense has held top rushing offenses, including Kansas and UCF, well below their season averages. Given Skattebo’s recent shoulder injury and a subpar performance against Kansas State, BYU’s 17th-ranked defense in EPA per rush is well-positioned to neutralize the Sun Devils’ ground game.

5. BYU and Arizona State Are More Alike Than They Seem

Though Arizona State has garnered national praise for their impressive run, a closer look reveals striking similarities between the two teams. Both squads have benefited from defensive and special teams touchdowns, have comparable records against quality opponents, and are evenly matched in talent. While ASU is viewed as a team on the rise, BYU’s narrative has been marred by undue criticism. In reality, BYU is just as capable and deserving of a spot in the Big 12 title game.

With both teams fighting for their postseason dreams, Saturday’s matchup promises to be a thrilling and closely contested battle. Despite being underdogs, the Cougars have every reason to believe they can secure a victory and solidify their place among the Big 12 elite.