carlos alcaraz

How Carlos Alcaraz revived his explosive best form at Indian Wells.

Published

4 months ago

March 19, 2024

The Spaniard won the championship for the second consecutive year while ranking well in a number of statistical categories.

In 2022, Carlos Alcaraz made history by becoming the youngest person to ever reach the top of the ATP rankings and by capturing his first grand slam title in one fell swoop—the US Open.

The Spaniard achieved this by combining lightning-fast reflexes and scorching strength, which allowed him to quickly switch from defense to attack. With his incredible touch and quick rise to the top of the game, he defeated Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon final the following year.

Though it appeared that Alcaraz had lost a little of his explosiveness in recent weeks due to niggling injuries that prevented him from playing at his best, his victory in the Indian Wells Masters on Sunday marked his first championship since then.

TennisViz illustrates how he did it with data generated by Tennis Data Innovations.

ALCARAZ PUTS THE POWER IN.

Alcaraz was the only player on the ATP Tour to rank in the top five for both the Conversion (the percentage of games won when a player is attacking) and Steal Score (the frequency of points won when a player is in a defensive situation) metrics in 2022 and 2023, all the way up to the Wimbledon final.

Those numbers declined in the latter half of 2023 and the first few months of 2024, getting almost as low as the Tour average in each case, placing them far lower among the elite players. The change is shown in the table below.

However, he returned to form in Indian Wells in 2024, winning the title for the second year in a row by defeating Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. His conversion rate was second only to Sinner, who has been playing at his best level for the last six months and won his maiden Grand Slam championship at the Australian Open, as the table below demonstrates.

And as he showed repeatedly against Medvedev in the final, Alcaraz is the best at converting defense into attack. As the table below demonstrates, nobody at Indian Wells came close to matching his performance. He won almost 45 percent of the points while playing defense, well surpassing Holger Rune, who came in second.

Quarterfinals Indian Wells 2024: Steal Score Leaderboard

FOREHAND ALSO BACK TO FULL FORCE

When Alcaraz is playing with full confidence, then his forehand is firing. When his forehand is firing, he’s at his best.

Not only did his forehand stats soar at Indian Wells, but his performance shot quality, which is measured by the speed, spin, depth, and width of his shots, was 9.0, well above the Tour average. Additionally, he felt secure enough to target his opponents’ forehands 50% of the time, up from his typical average of 45%.

A portion of that may have come from his quarterfinal matchup with Alexander Zverev, when the German’s backhand was far superior to his forehand; nonetheless, 50% of that is also 10% more than the Tour average.

As Medvedev stated, Alcaraz had periods of dominance during the Indian Wells match.

He said to reporters, “Carlos, his ball goes so fast that it goes fast from the beginning to the end.” In essence, it’s a benefit. It’s advantageous because there weren’t many rallies played today. However, when I did manage to set up a rally, I felt like my only option was to hit hard without really putting him in danger. When he hits a nice shot, though, I’m in trouble and lose the point.

It’s difficult. It’s difficult to play against this mentally.

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