Blue Jays

JUST IN: Estimating Turner’s position in the Blue Jays’ lineup

Published

5 months ago

February 1, 2024

The 39-year-old veteran has experience and has seen it all. The Blue Jays are placing their $13 million, one-year wager on Turner to continue his steady output much beyond the point at which most players retire, let alone decline.

Turner is a good fit for the majority of contenders’ rosters both on and off the field, but the Blue Jays feel like they are still one significant move away from having everything come together. As built, Toronto would still be taking a risk by relying on internal advancements to increase the ceiling from the previous year. The importance of winning the AL East is the one thing this team has learned over the last four years and three American League Wild Card Series sweeps. It takes more to accomplish that.

With two weeks until Toronto’s first pitchers’ and catchers’ workout, let’s lay out how this all looks.

Expected lineup

1. George Springer, RF
2. Bo Bichette, SS
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
4. Justin Turner, DH
5. Davis Schneider or Cavan Biggio, 2B
6. Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk, C
7. Daulton Varsho, LF
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B
9. Kevin Kiermaier, CF

Bench

Schneider or Biggio
Jansen or Kirk
INF Santiago Espinal
1B Spencer Horwitz

Other options
INF Ernie Clement
INF Orelvis Martinez (MLB Pipeline’s No. 2 Blue Jays prospect)
INF Addison Barger (No. 5)
INF Damiano Palmegiani (No. 18)
OF Alan Roden (No. 7)
OF Nathan Lukes

This is, of course, a 1,000-variable situation. The Blue Jays made a logical decision by assigning second base to a timesharee considering their depth. Martinez, a powerful hitter potential who might force the team’s hand by the middle of the season, is most likely the best fit at that position as well.

And finally, we reach the DH reps. Under the existing arrangement, Turner would own the majority of those, although “majority” here refers to something like 60–70% of the games, not every single one. Depending on matchups, Turner might play third and Kiner-Falefa the outfield on certain days. To be honest, until another big name is added, the best way to make the most of Toronto’s bench alternatives would be to have Kiner-Falefa play a significant portion of games in the outfield.

The Blue Jays’ best opportunity still lies at third base because of this. Reuniting with Matt Chapman would, strangely enough, fit this squad even better than it did three months ago, and it would allow John Schneider to use Kiner-Falefa as an additional flexible player. A power-hitting outfield/DH hybrid would also work, and although it looks like all of these alternatives would force Toronto to play 140 lineups over 162 games, the team is at ease with that amount of lineup rotation.

The bench spots can be of special interest. Horwitz’s bat is highly valued by the club, but does he get enough playing time with Guerrero and Turner? Can the Blue Jays get by with Kiner-Falefa, Biggio, and other sliding out, or do they need a genuine fourth outfielder? What exceptional quality does Espinal have off the bench? All of this would become much clearer if a potential, Martinez or Roden, kicks the door down before summertime.

For the Blue Jays, that is still where this offseason stands. This team has a strong squad that might easily replicate their 2023 89-win campaign, but once more, their goal should be to win their division rather than finish in the final Wild Card slot. We need another bat, one that would magnify every stroke that has come before it.