Just in: Top 5 candidates who are potential contenders to break Calvin Johnson’s receiving yardage record in 2024:

Since Calvin Johnson set the NFL single-season record for receiving yards in 2012 at 1,964 yards, several players have attempted to surpass it, but many have fallen short. Some have started the season on pace to approach or break the record, only to falter as the season progressed.

With the addition of a 17th regular season game in 2021 and the likely future addition of another regular season game, it seems only a matter of time before Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yards record falls. In a conversation with Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press at a recent golf event (subscription required), “Megatron” himself acknowledges that his record is destined to be surpassed.

Calvin Johnson’s perspective on his record being broken is pragmatic and forward-looking. He acknowledges the inevitability of his single-season receiving yards record falling due to the NFL’s emphasis on offense and the extended regular season. Here’s a paraphrase of his statement:

“Yeah, I mean, it’s bound to fall at some point with the way things are going, so that’s just how it goes,” Johnson said. “I held that record for over a decade now. The league wants more offense, so it’s inevitable. Staying healthy is crucial now that there’s a full 17-game season. If you can stay on the field for 17 games, guys are going to put up big numbers. That extra game adds another 150 or 200 yards potentially.”

To surpass Calvin Johnson’s record of 1,964 receiving yards, a player would need to average 115.6 yards per game over a full 17-game season. This means consistency is crucial, as any below-average games or missed games would increase the difficulty of achieving this feat.

Using NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks’ list as a starting point, here are five wide receivers who have the potential to break Johnson’s receiving yardage record this year.

5. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions fans would be thrilled to see their receiver, often referred to as the “Sun God,” surpass Calvin Johnson and keep the single-season receiving yards record within their team’s legacy. Interestingly, he was ranked second on Brooks’ list of five receivers who could potentially achieve this milestone.

Amon-Ra St. Brown possesses several qualities that make him a strong candidate to surpass Calvin Johnson’s record:
– He is the No. 1 target for his team, commanding a significant share of passes.
– His ability to line up in various positions within the formation, coupled with talented teammates, creates challenges for opposing defenses.
– The Lions’ skill position group is considered one of the best in the league, further enhancing St. Brown’s opportunities for success.

These factors collectively suggest that St. Brown has the potential to make a serious impact and potentially challenge Johnson’s record in the future.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown consistent improvement in his numbers each year of his career, culminating in over 1,500 yards last season. If he continues to progress at a similar rate as he did from 2022 to 2023, he could find himself approaching Calvin Johnson’s record. Moreover, a more significant leap in production could put him in a position to seriously challenge and potentially break the record. St. Brown’s upward trajectory suggests that he has the potential to make a substantial impact and become a prominent figure in the discussion of surpassing Johnson’s record.

4. Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

If Joe Burrow manages to stay healthy—an admittedly significant “if” given his injury history—Ja’Marr Chase could potentially make a serious push for the single-season receiving yardage record at some point in his career, possibly even multiple times. The departure of Tyler Boyd in free agency and lingering uncertainties surrounding Tee Higgins, despite signing his franchise tender, suggest that Chase’s target opportunities are poised to increase this season.

Ja’Marr Chase has demonstrated the capability to have standout performances necessary to challenge or surpass Calvin Johnson’s record. However, he has also experienced inconsistency with some underwhelming games each season. If Chase can improve his consistency this year and receive between 160 to 170 targets or more, there’s a strong possibility he could make significant strides toward potentially breaking Johnson’s record during the season.

3. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

CeeDee Lamb emerged as a dominant force last season, leading the NFL with 181 targets and 135 catches, while finishing second in yards with 1,749. The Cowboys’ decision not to make significant additions to their offensive skill positions this offseason solidifies Lamb’s role as the primary target for Dak Prescott without any competition.

The uncertainty surrounding CeeDee Lamb revolves around his contract negotiations. He skipped OTAs in pursuit of a new deal, potentially aiming to set a new standard at the top of the wide receiver market. However, it would be unexpected if Lamb didn’t attend training camp, especially to ensure he’s fully prepared for another impactful season.

CeeDee Lamb possesses all the essential elements for a breakout season in 2024: a prominent role in the offense, a top-tier quarterback in Dak Prescott, and significant motivation, whether it’s securing a new contract or aiming to achieve personal and team goals. Given these factors, a serious push by Lamb to challenge Calvin Johnson’s receiving yardage record is certainly within the realm of possibility.

2. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Tyreek Hill emerged as the league leader in receiving yards last season with 1,799 yards, marking back-to-back seasons surpassing 1,700 yards. Despite being 30 years old, Hill maintains impressive speed and refined route-running skills, making him a constant big-play threat. His rapport with Tua Tagovailoa has steadily improved, benefiting from the Dolphins’ evolving offensive strategy under head coach Mike McDaniel, known for his innovative approach to designing effective offenses.

Tyreek Hill’s near-1,800-yard season last year is even more impressive considering he missed one game. With a full 17-game schedule and the potential significance of Week 18 for the Dolphins, Hill could realistically make a push towards 2,000 receiving yards in a season. His combination of skills, durability, and chemistry with Tua Tagovailoa sets the stage for such a formidable achievement if conditions align favorably for Miami’s offense.

1. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

Adam Schein of NFL.com made a bold prediction going into last season, suggesting that Justin Jefferson could potentially set a new single-season receiving yards record.

Justin Jefferson faced challenges last season, missing seven games due to a hamstring injury. In the 10 games he played, he accumulated 68 catches for 1,074 yards. Extrapolating his performance over a full 17-game season, Jefferson’s pace was 1,826 yards. However, a chest injury sidelined him early in his return game, affecting his overall stats for the season. Excluding that game (two catches for 27 yards), Jefferson’s average in the remaining nine games was an impressive 116.3 yards per game, which projects to a staggering 1,977 yards over 17 games.

Despite the Minnesota Vikings losing Kirk Cousins in free agency, Jefferson showcased his ability to thrive regardless of the quarterback, notably producing standout performances with Nick Mullens under center late in the season.

If assessing which current NFL wide receivers could potentially break Calvin Johnson’s single-season yardage record, Jefferson would rank prominently. For this upcoming season, he narrowly edges out Tyreek Hill for the top spot due to favorable circumstances aligning for him to mount a serious challenge for the record.