LATEST: Phillies 2024 Season Preview: Kolby Allard, LHP

We’re continuing our preview series of the Philadelphia Phillies 2024 season with recently acquired pitcher Kolby Allard.

First, we’ll review Allard’s 2023 performance before examining his potential performance this season utilizing the widely used Steamer and ZiPS projection techniques, both of which are available on FanGraphs.

Kolby Allard 2023 stats and 2024 projections

• Kolby Allard 2023 Stats:
  – Games (G): 4
  – Innings Pitched (IP): 12.1
  – Record: 0-1
  – Earned Run Average (ERA): 6.57
  – Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 4.23
  – Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): 1.62
  – Strikeouts (SO): 13
  – Walks (BB): 4
  – Wins Above Replacement (fWAR): 0.2
• 2024 Steamer Projections
  – Games (G): 30
  – Innings Pitched (IP): 45
  – Record: 2-3
  – Earned Run Average (ERA): 4.50
  – Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 4.73
  – Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): 1.33
  – Strikeouts (SO): 41
  – Walks (BB): 16
  – Wins Above Replacement (fWAR): 0.3
• 2024 ZiPS Projections:
  – Games (G): 23
  – Innings Pitched (IP): 86
  – Record: 5-4
  – Earned Run Average (ERA): 4.40
  – Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): 4.34
  – Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP): 1.30
  – Strikeouts (SO): 83
  – Walks (BB): 28
  – Wins Above Replacement (fWAR): 1.0

Kolby Allard 2024 season preview

As Kolby Allard enters the 2024 season, the 26-year-old left-handed pitcher is looking to find stability in his big league career. Originally selected in the first round (14th overall) by the Atlanta Braves, Allard’s journey in the Major Leagues has been marked by ups and downs. Despite the high expectations associated with being a first-round pick, he has faced challenges that have impacted his performance.

After making his MLB debut with the Braves in 2018, Allard spent four seasons with the Texas Rangers before returning to the Braves in the previous season. The 2023 season saw Allard dealing with a late start due to an oblique injury in late March. Despite a promising start in Triple-A, where he posted a 2.70 ERA with eight strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings, he faced struggles upon his return to the big league club.

In the four appearances (three starts) for the Braves, Allard’s performance mirrored his career struggles, culminating in a 6.57 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 12 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to shoulder nerve inflammation.

As Allard gears up for the 2024 season, he aims to overcome past challenges and establish himself as a reliable contributor on the mound. The lefty will likely focus on refining his pitching approach and staying healthy to fulfill the potential that led to his first-round selection. With a fresh start and the opportunity to make adjustments, Allard is poised to tackle the upcoming season with determination and the desire to showcase his true capabilities.

As Kolby Allard embarks on a new chapter with the Philadelphia Phillies, his journey to climb the pitching depth chart presents challenges. Positioned as a valuable asset with experience both as a starter and reliever, Allard’s success will hinge on his on-field performance.

Projections from Steamer anticipate Allard to contribute 45 innings, involving three starts and the remainder in a relief role. It is likely that he will spend a significant portion of his time in Triple-A, serving as a contingency plan for unforeseen circumstances. Given the current structure of the Phillies’ rotation and the presence of Matt Strahm as the sixth rotation option, Allard starting games would imply a less-than-ideal scenario or a significant improvement in his performance forcing the team’s hand.

The projected ERAs of 4.50 (Steamer) and 4.40 (ZiPS) for Allard place him in a comparable range to Connor Brogdon and Gregory Soto based on their 2023 results.

One potential bright spot in Allard’s arsenal is his curveball, which showcased promise in the previous season. With a four-pitch mix including a 91 mph fastball, an 83 mph cutter, a changeup, and a 73 mph curveball, Allard’s curveball stood out. In the limited sample size of the 2023 season, the curveball was particularly effective, boasting a low launch angle, a .222 opponent’s average, and a .236 wOBA. Notably, the spin rate on the breaking ball increased from 1,858 rpm in 2022 to 2,027 rpm in the last season, contributing to an impressive 31.6 percent whiff rate.

If Allard can sustain the effectiveness of his curveball, it could become a valuable weapon for him in the upcoming season, potentially elevating his performance and impact with the Phillies.

Both projection systems, Steamer and ZiPS, align in anticipating that Kolby Allard will maintain a high strikeout rate during the upcoming season. Steamer specifically projects an 8.26 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), surpassing his career average of 7.49. Notably, Allard achieved a career-best rate of 9.49 K/9 in his brief stint last year, indicating his capability to generate strikeouts.

However, Steamer also predicts a slight regression in Allard’s walk rate, estimating it to be 3.18 walks per nine innings (BB/9). It’s worth noting that this projection might be an area where Allard could outperform expectations. While his career BB/9 stands at 3.09, over the last three seasons, he demonstrated improved control with a 2.34 BB/9 across 158 innings.

To secure a spot on the Philadelphia Phillies’ roster for Opening Day, Allard will need to showcase his skills during spring training in Florida. Given the current pitching depth, it is more likely that he will start the season in Lehigh Valley. However, the projection suggests that Allard could become a viable option for the Phillies when the need for additional arms arises during the season, presenting an opportunity for him to make an impact.