LATEST UPDATE: Here are five reasons the Rams won’t be playing in the Super Bowl next season.

The NFL offseason instills a fresh feeling of confidence, and the Los Angeles Rams have reason to be pleased with where the team stands right now. They quickly completed their rebuild and made it back to the postseason, thanks in large part to Les Snead’s excellent draft class, which included two mid-round picks, Puka Nacua and Kobie Turner, who finished as finalists for the offensive and defensive rookie of the year honors.

However, the NFL’s growth is not linear. There is ongoing competition in the league, and both good and terrible clubs are being pulled back towards mediocrity by invisible forces. Despite their ability to overcome adversity and get past their team-building schedule to the playoffs, the Rams are not assured to improve upon their performance in the coming season.

Here at Turf Show Times, Blaine Grisak outlined the five requirements the Rams need to meet in order to qualify for the Super Bowl the next season. As usual, I’ll present the more negative viewpoint and tell you five reasons why Los Angeles won’t advance to the championship game.

The success of Les Snead’s draft cannot continue.
It’s already practically unheard of to select a defensive rookie of the year with your second pick in the third round, but Snead also found a formidable offensive option in Nacua. In addition to being a fifth-round selection, Nacua was also the fourth pick taken by LA in that round, coming in behind Nick Hampton, Warren McClendon, and Davis Allen.

Whatever you want to name it. Yes, there was probably some skill and talent evaluation involved, but the Rams would have selected Nacua much sooner if they had really known he was going to be a star. I believe it’s luck, and the Rams won’t be able to repeat similar results in 2024 or later. We should recognize that the Los Angeles 2023 draft class is historic.

The Rams’ defense lacks star potential, and their free agent acquisitions are hazardous.
We are aware that LA virtually sacrificed its defense over the previous offseason in the hopes that their offense would keep them afloat and, ideally, competitive. The Rams let go of expensive veterans like Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd, Jalen Ramsey, and others. All that was left for them was Aaron Donald and a few young players who gave far better performances than we could have possibly predicted.

We would therefore anticipate that the Rams will start retooling the defense and balancing the roster now that they have greater resources—both in terms of draft capital and salary cap. Everyone thinks it means signing a top cornerback or edge rusher in free agency, but that might be far harder than people think.

First of all, the best players manage to stay on their teams and never seem to reach free agency. It is conceivable that Josh Allen and the Jacksonville Jaguars, L’Jarius Snead and the Kansas City Chiefs, Brian Burns and the Carolina Panthers, and most likely other teams might experience it. Ultimately, this leads to teams engaging in bidding wars for players who are not considered blue chip prospects, and frequently, they are left unsatisfied with the outcome after a year or two.

Instead of going through the free agent pool, one solution is to trade for a proven commodity that might not be in the other team’s future plans, but the Rams have seen a significant increase in the cost of such moves. They are to blame for this issue.

Matthew Stafford’s age and possible downward trend
Without a doubt, Matthew Stafford is the NFC’s oldest starting quarterback. If Aaron Rodgers hadn’t been plagued by doubts after missing almost the entire 2023 season due to a torn Achilles and using his time off to stir up controversy off the field, he would have been the oldest starter in NFL history.

Having said that, Stafford’s performance in the last stretch of the season was maybe the greatest of his career. What was the cause of the Rams offense’s early-season struggles? If you look closely enough, you can see obvious danger indicators with Stafford even if you are able to respond to that question.

Regardless of how you look at the numbers or graph them, Stafford is currently among the NFL’s most inaccurate passers. Although he experienced a surge in his adjusted completion percentage towards the end of the season, he ultimately concluded the season with a mere 74.3% (postseason included). That is below players like Derek Carr and Sam Howell and tied for the 16th best mark in the NFL with Justin Fields. At 79.0% and 78.8%, respectively, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff lead the NFL in this category.

Although it may not seem like much, Stafford actually missed 26 passes more than Mahomes and Goff this season out of 557 passing attempts. This is a four or five percent differential. This represents 7.5% of Stafford’s 351 completions in 2023.

Give Stafford credit for improving his play late in the season and reducing his turnovers. However, decline isn’t gradual with older quarterbacks. As we’ve seen with Matt Ryan, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees, it usually ends on a cliff. Is now the time to worry for the Rams? Will they be prepared with a backup plan?

unable to resolve the team’s kicker problem
After Matt Gay signed a free agent contract with the Indianapolis Colts last year, the Rams attempted to cut costs at kicker, but they ultimately received what they paid for. Before the regular season had started, they signed Brett Maher, who they cut after just a few games. Despite acquiring Lucas Havrisik from the Cleveland Browns practice squad, LA finally decided that returning to Maher was the wiser course of action.

The Rams will need to use wise free agent cash to sign a seasoned kicker or use a draft pick to acquire a rookie if they hope to have stability at the position.

The conservatism of Sean McVay on fourth down
Despite the team’s kicking problems, McVay has continued to make cautious choices on fourth downs. The Rams may be held back by this, particularly in light of the presence of NFC coaches like Nick Sirianni and Dan Campbell who push his teams forward and improve them through contemporary decision-making.

According to the data below, the Rams are fewer than 50% of the time going for it on fourth down when the odds of winning imply it adds at least 1.5%. For his team, Sean McVay is leaving a lot on the table, and he needs to do better in this area.