JOEL DRUCKER: Djokovic’s stellar results of the last 18 months, combined with the exceptionally good health he has enjoyed for many years, make the Sunshine Swing much less important for him than to Rafael Nadal. Does that mean Nadal must fare well at Indian Wells and Miami for his ’24 to progress sharply? No. In fact, I’ll be surprised if Nadal plays both tournaments (he last played Miami seven years ago, losing in the finals to Roger Federer). What matters is that Nadal maintain good health, win at least two or three matches, and build confidence for his beloved clay-court season.
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Sunshine Symposium: Does Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Nadal place greater value on Indian Wells and Miami?
The three men on the ATP tour drawing the most attention are discussed, along with who stands to gain the most from victory in March.
The 2024 BNP Paribas Open draw is scheduled to be made public on Monday, March 4. As the Sunshine Swing approaches, our writers and editors address the most crucial queries in advance of Indian Wells and Miami.
Next up: Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, or Carlos Alcaraz would all gain the most from victory in March?
STEVE TIGNOR: Carlos Alcaraz was widely regarded as the ATP’s most exciting player going forward when he won the Indian Wells Open in 2023. A year later, he will enter the competition having not won in nine months and having been briefly eclipsed as the Next Big Thing by Jannik Sinner. Alcaraz is expected to have a chance to recapture some momentum in 2024 after he won in Miami in 2022 and Indian Wells in 2023. I hope he doesn’t let his recent ankle ailment get in the way.
Djokovic and Nadal last faced off at 2022 Roland Garros, where Nadal won en route to his most recent major victory.
PATRICIA LIVAUDAIS: Although Carlos Alcaraz is undoubtedly in need of victory in North America, the Sunshine Swing has the potential to pave the way for a significant declaration from Novak Djokovic. He is making his first trips back to Indian Wells and Miami since 2019. He is also returning to one of his best runs of the season, having won six tournaments in Miami and five times at Indian Wells, including four “Sunshine Doubles” in 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. With a dominant victory in Cincinnati last year, Djokovic staved off the youthful upsurge led by Carlos Alcaraz. This year, he has the opportunity to do the same against Jannik Sinner, a two-time Miami finalist who just captured his first Grand Slam championship on Djokovic’s home court in Australia.
MATT FITZGERALD: Overall, Rafael Nadal considers that these two events are quite important. With his Down Under comeback ending prior to the Australian Open, Rafa will definitely want to make sure his body can withstand competing in back-to-back events. In a competitive setting, he will seek to collect more information about his current situation. Additionally, he’ll want to acclimate to the rhythm of all the little things that come with touring. Naturally, all of this has to do with the development that everyone has been waiting for with Rafa in particular: European clay.
LIYA DAVIDOV: There are very few records left for Novak Djokovic to break, and coming into an Olympic year, there was a sizeable opportunity for a Calendar Year Golden Slam. Falling to Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open, then, was off-course for the 24-time Grand Slam champion, and the spotlight seems to have shifted off Djokovic and over to the next generation. A strong performance in the Sunshine Swing would make him the unequivocal man to beat heading onto European red clay.
PETER BODO: Winning one of the next two Masters 1000s is not really necessary for either Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. It’s a different boat for Carlos Alcaraz. The 20-year-old has advanced far into challenging draws, but he hasn’t triumphed at Wimbledon since last year. He has one title at every forthcoming Masters event and is 10-2 overall. When it comes to advancing his profession, Alcaraz may find great significance in these incidents.
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