Hibernian FC

UPDATE: How Hibs might save their season after failure to launch

Published

5 months ago

February 22, 2024

From their current position just a few steps above the launch pad, the prospect of Hibs qualifying for European football through league standings seems like an ambitious goal. To many neutral observers, the likelihood of Hibs suddenly climbing up the table is akin to NASA offering inexpensive day trips to the moon.

However, as experts at Cape Kennedy would attest, tackling a long journey requires breaking it down into manageable stages. Nick Montgomery’s team is focused on achieving a top-six position, ensuring they’re not left behind when the Scottish Premiership elite separates from the bottom half.

With eight games to navigate before the cut-off point, Hibs have ample opportunities to surpass teams ahead of them. Five of these fixtures are against lower-ranked opponents. A win against Dundee on Saturday, despite the visitors currently holding a five-point lead over Hibs, would set them on the right path.

Starting with a victory this weekend is crucial, as history and mathematics indicate that momentum is key. Analysis of recent Scottish Premiership seasons shows that an average of 44 points after 33 games is typically needed to secure a top-six finish. Falling short of this mark could leave a team battling relegation in the final rounds of fixtures.

With eight games remaining, Hibs are now sitting at 27 points. Therefore, out of the next 24 points available, they will need 17 to be certain. imposing but manageable? for a group that has scored three of the last twenty-four points that have been put up?

Analyzing each game separately:

DUNDEE (6th on the table) H 24.02.24

Expectation: 3 points – or Hibs are really in trouble.

HEARTS (3rd on the table) A 28.02.24

Thus far: Brilliant fightback to claim a 2-2 draw at Tynecastle in October was followed by the disappointment of Lawrence Shankland scoring the only goal – in injury time – at Easter Road just after Christmas.

Prediction: 1 point.

ROSS COUNTY (11th on the table) H 02.03.24

Thus far: Drew 2-2 at Easter Road on Hallowe’en before weather forced the late postponement of their pre-Christmas clash in Dingwall.

Prediction: 3 points.

LIVINGSTON (12th on the table) 16.03.24

Thus far: A 3-2 home loss to Livi in August saw Lee Johnson dismissed. Montgomery steered his team to a scrappy 1-0 away win – their last league victory, to date – on December 9.

Prediction: 3 points.

RANGERS (1st on the table) 30.03.24

Thus far: Played two, lost two. Scored zero, conceded seven.

Prediction: 0 points.

ST JOHNSTONE (10th on the table) H 06.04.24

Thus far: Hibs were two points off third place and already had a 2-0 home win over Saints in the bag when they pitched up to McDiarmid Park on December 16. A 1-0 loss there marked the beginning of their current eight-game winless streak in the league.

Prediction: 1 point.

MOTHERWELL (9th on the table) A 13.04.24

Thus far: A 2-1 loss at Fir Park in August, then a 2-2 draw at Easter Road in January.

Prediction: 1 point.

Although that seems like a pretty impressive run of results on paper, it only adds up to 15 points, which takes Monty’s team to 42 at the half. Which might be enough. Maybe. With a little help from others.

Could Hibs pull off a victory at home against Craig Levein’s unavoidably stubborn St Johnstone? If it came down to the last day, might they have the perseverance and guts to win at Fir Park? They could. They might. They may have to. It begins on Saturday, when they travel to Dundee.