What Birmingham City may face if relegated this season

Birmingham City may play in League One next season alongside Rotherham United after having both a terrible season overall and a terrible recent run of play.

The Midlands-based squad has changed managers six times this season, both permanent and temporary, but none of them have been able to turn around the terrible play that the Blues have been experiencing. As of this writing, the only team below them in the league table is Rotherham, with Gary Rowett in charge of the team’s postseason play and Tony Mowbray out due to illness.

Things had gone horribly wrong for Blues after such a promising start under John Eustace, with Tom Brady and Wagner shining in the second division.

The likelihood of staffing and playing position changes within the squad has increased due to this possible relegation; yet, success may not always be assured with a new roster for the following season.

Birmingham’s experienced players may leave

The potential departure of long-serving players such as Lukas Jutkiewicz, Neil Etheridge, and Scott Hogan could result in a significant loss of experience for Birmingham City. Together, they have accumulated 512 appearances in the English Football League (EFL) for the club, making their knowledge invaluable for any promotion bid after relegation.

However, despite their experience, financial constraints may force the club to let them go. Etheridge has seen limited playing time this season, while Hogan and Jutkiewicz have also had limited appearances under various managers.

Additionally, Jutkiewicz’s recent knee injury may further complicate matters, potentially sidelining him for the rest of the season. While the trio’s understanding of the EFL could greatly benefit Birmingham next season, the club may face challenges in retaining an experienced squad due to financial constraints.

Birmingham will undergo changes due to financial pressure.

If Birmingham City faces relegation, they might encounter challenges in the next season due to the likely departure of experienced players who may be sold or released. Relegation in the English Football League (EFL) poses financial difficulties, particularly for a club like Birmingham, which has been a Championship fixture for an extended period.

Their substantial wage bill, estimated at £13,993,720 in 2023, places them in the mid-range among Championship clubs. However, comparing this to League One leaders Portsmouth’s wage bill of £6,015,360 reveals a significant difference. This suggests that Birmingham may need to part ways with much of their talent and experience to align with the financial constraints of League One, particularly considering the tightening restrictions in place.

History might be repeated, but on a far larger scale.

In past seasons, some third-tier teams attempted to focus on youth talents with lower wages, but success was not guaranteed. AFC Wimbledon’s experience in the 2021/22 season under Mark Robinson exemplifies this. Despite initially showing promise with a young squad, the sale of experienced striker Ollie Palmer led to setbacks. Attempts to replace him with academy loans from EFL and Premier League sides resulted in a prolonged winless run and relegation to League Two.

While the financial and transfer strategies differ between AFC Wimbledon and Birmingham City, there’s a cautionary tale for Birmingham if they pursue a similar route to rejuvenate the team and ease financial pressure. Another relegation to League Two may seem extreme, but English football is unforgiving to those who falter early in the season. Birmingham cannot afford further financial troubles, especially with plans for a new stadium. Failing to address these challenges could lead to serious consequences, starting with the remaining Championship fixtures.