Wimbledon 2024: How does the upcoming generation of men’s tennis appear?

After an intense battle lasting four hours and 42 minutes, Carlos Alcaraz collapsed onto the grass and rolled over in jubilation as the crowd erupted. He had accomplished what many thought impossible: defeating Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon for the first time since 2017, securing his second major title in the process. His emotions of joy and disbelief were evident to everyone present.

Since he first picked up a racket as a young boy, Alcaraz had dreamed of beating Djokovic on Centre Court at Wimbledon. Now, that dream had become a reality.

Djokovic, aiming for his record-tying 24th major title and eighth Wimbledon championship, was stunned as he approached the net to congratulate Alcaraz, who is 16 years his junior. Alcaraz now stands as a legitimate rival and a formidable obstacle in Djokovic’s pursuit of tennis history.

Almost immediately, discussions about a potential shift in men’s tennis began circulating. Although Alcaraz did not explicitly contribute to these speculations during his subsequent news conference, he did acknowledge the significance of his achievement, both for himself and his contemporaries.

“It’s great for the new generation as well, I think, to see me beating him and making them think that they are capable to do it as well,” Alcaraz said after the match. “It’s great for me and I think for all the young players.”

However, while some speculated that Djokovic’s dominance might be waning, Djokovic had different plans. He clinched his 24th major title at the US Open less than two months later. Winning three of the season’s majors and the year-end ATP Finals, he finished the year ranked No. 1 and publicly announced his ambition to achieve the “Golden Slam” in 2024, capturing all four major titles and Olympic gold.

By mid-2024, the 37-year-old Djokovic found himself far from his desired position. He hadn’t secured a single title at any level this year, nor had he reached a final. He exited the Australian Open in the semifinals against Jannik Sinner and withdrew before the French Open quarterfinals due to a torn medial meniscus in his right knee, requiring surgery on June 6. Despite being seen practicing at Wimbledon, Djokovic told the BBC he would only play if he believed he could contend for the title.

While Djokovic’s participation at Wimbledon seems likely, he isn’t the favorite to win at the All England Club. Coupled with Rafael Nadal’s absence, who has hinted at retiring after this season, and Roger Federer’s retirement in 2022, it appears the guard in men’s tennis might finally be changing. The emerging stars of tomorrow are now firmly establishing themselves in the present, with several players capable of challenging for titles at any tournament.

“This is such an exciting time for men’s tennis,” remarked Brad Gilbert, current coach of Coco Gauff and former coach of Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick, in an ESPN interview earlier this month. “At the French Open, for the first time, I didn’t have a clear favorite, and it feels like it’s heading that way. It used to be Djokovic at Wimbledon, but now, it’s anyone’s game. Same at the Australian Open. Or Nadal at the French Open, but now, it’s wide open. In the past, these guys were like the house in a casino, always winning. But [at Roland Garros], there wasn’t a clear favorite, and maybe that’s the direction things are heading.”

If Djokovic withdraws before play begins on Monday, it will mark the first time since 1998 that a main draw at Wimbledon lacks a member of the Big Three (Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer), who have historically dominated the tournament.

Last year, Carlos Alcaraz became only the second player outside of the Big Three since 2002 to win the men’s title at Wimbledon, joining Andy Murray. The 37-year-old Murray, a three-time major champion with two Wimbledon victories, is delaying his decision on participating due to a recent back procedure.

Regardless of Djokovic’s (or Murray’s) participation, 21-year-old Alcaraz and 22-year-old Jannik Sinner are seen as the frontrunners for the title. As of Thursday, ESPN BET had Alcaraz and Sinner tied with the top odds at +165, while Djokovic trailed as a distant third at +385.

“I’m trying to imagine what the odds would be if Djokovic were 100% healthy, because right now Alcaraz and Sinner are heavy favorites,” commented Patrick McEnroe, retired player and current commentator, during a media call this week. “Novak is a distant third. … While Wimbledon might be the place where he could manage to play through this injury, I still lean towards the two younger guys. They’ve both proven themselves capable of winning majors.”

“[Sinner] probably is one of the most difficult challenges that we can face in tennis right now. I think he’s the best player in the world.”Carlos Alcaraz

Starting from Federer’s first Grand Slam victory at Wimbledon in 2003 until the end of the 2023 season, the Big Three (Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic) amassed 66 out of 81 major titles. Initially, they predominantly battled each other in finals, but in recent years, Djokovic and Nadal have faced a rising contingent of young stars like Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Casper Ruud in major finals.

Dominic Thiem broke through as the first male player born in the 1990s to win a major at the 2020 US Open, a tournament where Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer did not participate due to the pandemic. Medvedev then became the first of the “Next Gen” to defeat a member of the Big Three in a Slam final the following year at the US Open, disrupting Djokovic’s bid for a calendar-year Grand Slam.

Reflecting on the changing landscape, Djokovic acknowledged the rise of the new generation: “The new generation, if you want to call them this, is not anyone new. It’s already current, established. Of course, they are going to take over.”

Since then, Medvedev, now 28, has reached three more Slam finals but hasn’t secured another major title. The spotlight has increasingly turned to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner as the players most likely to fulfill Djokovic’s prophecy.

Alcaraz, currently ranked No. 3, has claimed three majors, including the recent French Open, and added a second Indian Wells title this season. Sinner, who briefly held the world No. 1 spot from Djokovic, has won eight titles since the beginning of 2023, including the Australian Open and the prestigious Miami Open, along with his first grass-court title in Halle.

Their burgeoning and friendly rivalry has captivated fans as they continually elevate their games to match each other. Alcaraz holds a 5-4 career edge over Sinner, including a dramatic victory in their most recent meeting in the French Open semifinals, a marathon match lasting over four hours.

Both players recognize the significance of their rivalry for themselves and for tennis as it transitions away from the era dominated by the Big Three.

“Sinner is probably one of the most difficult challenges that we can face in tennis right now. I think he’s the best player in the world,” Alcaraz stated ahead of their match in Paris. “The matches that we’ve played before have been unbelievable games, I think everybody wants to watch this match. … Let’s see how it’s going to be, but I think it’s going to be great for tennis and for the fans.”

The prospect of a potential semifinal clash between Alcaraz and Sinner at the All England Club looms large. Djokovic, positioned in the opposite half of the draw, would only meet either in the final.

However, this season has highlighted several players who have demonstrated they are capable of claiming major titles. In the five Masters 1000 tournaments this year, the most prestigious events after the Grand Slams and ATP Finals, there have been five different champions. Alongside Alcaraz and Sinner, Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, and Alexander Zverev have all emerged victorious and pose significant threats at Wimbledon and beyond.

The depth of talent extends further. Medvedev, renowned for his prowess on hard courts, reached the Wimbledon semifinals last year and remains a strong contender, particularly given his experience and form against a field largely less familiar with grass. Medvedev is also expected to contend strongly at the US Open.

Hubert Hurkacz, seeded No. 7 and a former Wimbledon semifinalist, recently reached the final in Halle, defeating Roger Federer along the way in 2021. Alex de Minaur has broken into the top 10 for the first time this season, reaching the quarterfinals at the French Open and claiming his second career grass-court title at the Rosmalen Grass Court Championships.

Additionally, there are potential surprises in players like British star Jack Draper, who secured his first ATP title in Stuttgart and defeated Alcaraz at Queen’s Club soon after. Tommy Paul, the new American No. 1, also earned his maiden grass-court title at Queen’s Club, highlighting his potential in the upcoming tournaments.

“I absolutely love the way Tommy Paul is playing,” McEnroe expressed. “I actually think that he could be in the semis or final if he believes it.”

As the main draw of Wimbledon approaches, there are numerous uncertainties surrounding the tournament, starting with Djokovic’s potential participation, and broader questions about the future of men’s tennis. Will Djokovic secure another major to claim the all-time record? Will Alcaraz and Sinner establish themselves as the leading figures in a new era? Or will other contenders regularly challenge for major titles alongside them? Wimbledon could offer a glimpse into the post-Big Three landscape.

Despite Djokovic’s mixed season and the uncertainty around his Wimbledon appearance, it doesn’t signify the end of his dominance. Addressing speculation about the younger generation and reflecting on his recent semifinal exit in Melbourne, Djokovic emphasized not to dismiss him yet.

“I still have high hopes for other Slams, Olympics, and any tournaments that I’ll compete in,” Djokovic asserted. “This tournament hasn’t met my usual standards or expectations, but that doesn’t mean it’s the beginning of the end, as some may suggest.”